Circa 2070 is almost half a century away. That is when India is committed to reach Net Zero Carbon Emissions status, subject to a lot of imponderables. No doubt, India's self-imposed deadline to support global climate change challenge is 20 years beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) target date.
The task is gargantuan and India is fully aware of the serious economic and social implications of carbon emissions. "Recognizing that climate change is a global collective action problem, India is committed to addressing the challenge with firm adherence to multilateralism based on equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), as per UNFCC," said India's Minister for Environment and Climate Change xxx Yadav at the 2022 Meet ....
Despite drawing attention to the fact that Southern Asia contributed only 4% of historical net anthropogenic emissions between 1850 and 2019 with almost 24% global population cohabiting this landmass and North America and Europe alone have contributed 10 times more to global cumulative emissions during the same period with approx 13% global population, India is not shirking its responsibility to fight the climate change battle.
India is actively pursuing energy efficiency as one of the key means of promoting low carbon development. It is estimteed India's annual primary energy consumption per capita in 2019 was 28.7 gigajoules (GJ), considerably lower than voth developed and developing country peers. Its clear that India has drawn a clear roadmap keeping its social and economic obligations: "to support its demographic transition and consequent job creation needs, its agrarian and urban transiiton and infrastructure development" and equivocally maintains that its mitigtion efforts "are driven not just by climate-specific policies but also by broader development choices." India is unlikely to succumb to pressure from the matured economies.
Having said that, what's on its plate in this battle for sustenence and survival? Coal continues to be its leading natural fuel resource. Natural gas consumption is several notches below the OECD levels. It is a known fact that India has met its pre-2020 voluntary contribution through its policies and actions which are compatible with the 20 C wrming target of the Paris Agreement.
At the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) of the UNFCCC in Glasgow in August 2022, India updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Under this commitment, India would meet 50% of its cumulative electric ower installed capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030; reduce the emission intensity of GDP by 45% below 2050 levels by 2030; prepare and propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on the traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for LiFE – Lifestyle for Environment as a key to combating climate change.
India’s Low-Emissions Development Transitions (LT-LEDS) rests on seven key transitions to low-carbon development pathways. These transitions to low-carbon development pathways have already been initiated through various significant and specific policies, programmes, and initiatives.
The Ministry says that its low carbon development of electricity systems consistent with development Growth in the electricity sector is critical for enabling industrial expansion, enhanced employment and incomes, and achievement of Aatmanirbhar Bharat (Self Reliant India).
Low carbon options are to be assessed in the context of inclusive growth and expansion needed in the sector.
• Expanding renewables and strengthening the grid
• Exploring and/or supporting other low carbon technologies
• Focusing on demand-side management
• Rational utilization of fossil fuel resources, with due regard to energy security
• Assessing enablers for low carbon development
• Determining green taxonomy and optimum energy mix (complementing national development scenarios)
As far as the transport segment is concerned, a major contributor to GDP directly or indirectly (10%), its low carbon options have to factor in the burgeoning need for passenger and freight mobility to meet the needs of 1.4 billion populace. Emissions from the transportation sector are mainly driven by fossil fuel consumption in the road sector, even as vehicle ownership in India is far below the world average and much below the levels of other developed and emerging economies. The road transport sector accounts for about 87% of passenger traffic and 60% of freight traffic movement in the country and sustainable development of this sector is a critical element in India’s long-term development strategy.
India is assiduously focused on:
• Encouraging improved fuel efficiency
• Phased transition to cleaner fuels
• Modal shift towards public and less polluting modes of transport
• Electrification across multiple modes
• Demand side management
• Traffic management and intelligent transport systems
All said and done, india's current growth and transport sector trends indicate the on-road freight segment is likely to be a significant driver of transport emissions in the long-term in a business-as usual scenario.
Emissions from heavy duty vehicles would account for the majority of such emissions. Addressing both passenger and freight transport will therefore be an important goal for India’s low-carbon development.
So, the government's indicative 2025 targets are:
* 20% ethanol blending in petrol, with a savings potential of approximately INR 30,000 crore/year. (US$1 = INR 85)
• Leapfrogging Bharat Stage V emissions to directly reach Bharat Stage VI emissions.
• Comprehensive package for electric vehicles, including domestic manufacturing in auto parts and batteries, investments in charging infrastructure and demand aggregation.
• Indian Railways to become net-zero by 2030, leading to annual mitigation of 60 million tonnes of CO2 .
• Multiple policies to enhance the share of public, non-motorized transport.
• A National Master Plan for Multi-modal Connectivity – PM Gati Shakti.
• Integrated and optimized freight networks through programmes such as Gati Shakti, Transit-oriented development, Bharatmala, Sagarmala, and dedicated rail freight corridors.
• National Logistic Policy aspires to reduce cost of logistics in India to be comparable to global benchmarks by 2030.
Elements of a Long-Term Low-Carbon Growth Strategy
1. Reducing fuel demand and GHG emissions through improved fuel efficiency: India will achieve this through raised standards, optimized networks, improved technologies, and fleet modernization.
2. Phased adoption of cleaner fuels: There will be continuation of a gradually increased blending of cleaner fuels while managing socio-economic and development of the skilling aspects required for the same. Hydrogen will be used as an energy carrier and alternate fuel in the transportation sector.
3. Modal shift towards public and less polluting modes of transport: India will seek to integrate transport with urban planning, multi-modal connectivity, and enhanced railway capacity.
4. Electrification across multiple modes: A comprehensive package of programmes, policies, and measures for the domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries and the electrification of railways will be taken up.
