The Dragon Encirclement

 

Ramesh Kumar from Greater Noida/India

TRADE can never flourish unless there is amity and bonhomie between neighbors. With regard to the theories of growth, the flow of trade has a significance in the determination of the rate of economic growth because trade allows the progress of technology in a region that ends up playing a crucial role in productions and gains of competition. This eventually fosters both the development and growth of a given economy, writes Azdak Samue of Kenyatta University in his research paper on "International Trade and its impact on the global economy".

 The very fact the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has not taken off even after 35 years is testimony to the acrimony among some of its members who matter the most from the economic and trade perspective: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. If only things worked out well as was envisaged at the birth of this regional cooperation body, there would have been greater prosperity and better living standards.

 

The less said about the bitterness between Pakistan and India, the better. The Islamabad-Beijing alliance on many planks vis-a-vis New Delhi gets reflected in the trade relations particularly  with the former. The recent Chinese incursions into Ladakh preceded by the Doklam episode involving Bhutan also has soured trade relations with China as well.

 But that is not as severe as with Pakistan, due to the bilateral trade between the two Asian giants for long, despite the ugly 1962 Indo-China war.

 Sri Lanka has a new government with Gotabaya Rajapaksha as its President, who is believed to view China in a better light than India.  The Chinese have invested heavily in the Sri Lankan economy compared to India's slow pace of investment and involvement in the same sphere.

 As far as Bangladesh is concerned, the Chinese threat is very much there. Here again, New Delhi will be unable to match Beijing's deep pockets and its money power via investments in several Bangladesh infrastructure projects is visible.

 Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's equation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to be on an even keel. India's role in liberating erstwhile East Pakistan to become Bangladesh in 1971 when her father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman (assassinated later) led the war and become the first Prime Minister continues to be valued by Hasina. Nonetheless, every ruler desires faster growth and it is here China is scoring over India massively.

 It is pertinent to note that India's foreign secretary Harsh Shringla visited Dhaka in mid-August and met  the Prime Minister. Significantly this was his second visit to Bangladesh since taking over in January. At his level, the discussion obviously would have been economic and trade issues.

 To give a boost to the Indo-Bangladesh bilateral trade, Indian Railways ran 103 freight trains in the month of June ferrying essential goods to Bangladesh. Parcel and container trains moved between the two countries in July, carrying a wide range of products. Again, a ship sailed from Kolkota to India's northeastern port near Agartala after a touchdown at Chittogram in Bangladesh.

 Bilateral trade has grown steadily over the last decade: India’s exports to Bangladesh in 2018-19 stood at $9.21 billion, and imports from Bangladesh at $1.04 billion. On the other hand, the bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China is around $18 billion, favoring Beijing.

 On the Indo-Nepal front, suddenly there seems to be a lot of discomforts. Again, the Chinese hand is visible. The redrawing of the Nepalese map is a case in point. The landlocked Himalayan neighbor's dependence on India is legendary. More than 65% of Nepal's trade involving both export and import happens via Kolkota mostly. Despite the long historical, cultural and economic relationship between the two nations, there are several ticklish issues. The  current ruling party Nepal Communist Party obviously has an interest to  side with China which the latter is taking advantage of.

 The Chinese gambit is to  isolate India from its neighbors and it is succeeding. Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have a trade relationship with India for long and any uneasiness in the bilateral relationship would automatically impact trade.

 No nation can progress in the midst of a troubled relationship with its neighbor. In India's case, it is not just one neighbor, but many. Meanwhile, China has been isolated globally in the wake of the Corona  Virus pandemic. But this has not halted the Dragon from pursuing its goal to be THE superpower challenging the United States and its allies particularly in the Indo Pacific region.

 SAARC is dead and its revival is unlikely. Rebuilding the old friendship with its neighbors is going to be a  Himalayan task, particularly in the light of the Chinese strategy to weaken India's ties with other SAARC members by dangling investment carrot. It is equally  true that these countries are taking advantage of the India China tussle.

 Trade is recognized as a key factor for the 2030 Agenda, including poverty reduction and economic growth. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by all United Nation members in 2015, target 17.11 aims to significantly increase the exports of developing countries, and in particular with a view to doubling the LDC’s share in global exports by 2020. Reaching this target is likely to be implausible. There has not been a substantial increase in the share of exports for LDCs or for developing economies in general since 2012. The COVID-19 pandemic poses additional challenges for developing economies in fulfilling not only international trade goals but also various other SDGs.

 

Why Elizabeth threw the curd bowl?-1

Elizabeth threw the bowl of curd onto the ground and howled. Ruby controlled her temper and held her fist rightly behind her back. One more ugly scene and she was sure that she would whack the hell out of this little devil. If bread is out of stock at the neighborhood kirana shop, what she can do? It is not her fault. She’s just a housewife and dutiful at that. All purchases were made by Desmond D’Silva, her hubby of 12 years. Her job ended with the preparation of the master list at the beginning of the month followed by a twice a week supplement list for replenishments. Bread is in short supply for the past one week. Why only bread? Everything else is. Little Devil “Liza” cannot do without bread toast for her breakfast with her quota of Horlicks. That too with the Bevers brand. Nothing less than that. When Guptaji ran out of bread, Ruby had no other choice but to make paranthas – plain or stuffed – as the replacement and feed the child. Liza, it is no secret, did not cherish parantha-and-curd combo and she wanted her regular bread toast. Where will Ruby go to get bread? Across Delhi, there is no supply of Bevers bread. Or for that matter, no bread. All because truck drivers have gone on a wildcat strike. Drivers on a strike? Unheard of. One heard of transporters announcing “chakka jam” or indefinite strike, but drivers – that too, long haul truck drivers? Yes, it was strange. These chaps never stopped working on their own. Occasionally, they were rendered helpless when transporters and fleet owners under some pretext or other resorted to blackmailing the government demanding some concession. During those short breaks, drivers have no option but to stay on the sidelines, cursing their fate that whatever the outcome of these work stoppages, they never benefitted. Only transporters, fleet owners and broking agents walked away with whatever little freebie the government threw at them to buy peace and restore normalcy. “No bread, no school,” Liza began to chant. Her toothless kid brother Emmanuel giggled without understanding the import of drama unfolding in front of him. His clapping with his tender, tiny palms added grist to Liza’s enthusiasm and she began to dance, after throwing her canvas shoes in preparation to undo school uniform. “Des, stop this nonsense! Pack her off to school. I can’t handle her anymore! Or you take a day off and sit with her,” chided Ruby ogling at her hubby who was half-reading the newspaper in hand and half glancing at the scene in front of him. “Ökie, baby! Lizzie, let’s go for a bar of chocolate!” Desmond tried to lure his distraught daughter and save Ruby. Dad and daughter stepped out with school bags and canvas shoes in her left hand. Ruby picked up Emmanuel moved to the kitchen. Her new challenge is what to cook? There is no vegetable, no meat, no fish. Only grain and potatoes and onion. No tomato. All because of the drivers’ strike! Idiots! She cursed. How long this will continue? How is she going to survive? *** Jaishankar Sharma, perched on a rugged coir cot and looking at the sky in his open yard, belched twice. “Throat drying up. Get me some water,” he requested no one in particular. But there was some movement inside his house. He could hear the sound of a steel tumbler being plunged into another vessel. So, the requested water will be on the way soon, Sharma surmised. He can hear his thoughts, but not his voice. Over the past week, he has totally lost his voice due to incessant phone conversations with his colleagues calling from across the country. No, Sharma is no politician. A long haul driver. His employer? It depends on when you ask. Today he may be working for Motilal Transport. Tomorrow Shankar Logistics. Why? “You look educated, but … sorry to say, you are illiterate,” he brusquely told the Hitavada reporter who had come to interview him two days ago. Well, this is how the interview transpired. “Sharmaji, in your 30 years’ service, every few months you keep jumping? Is it good?” “Namaskarji, Patrakar babu! Tell me, when you joined this paper, did you get an appointment letter? Patrakar babu – Naresh Minocha – nodded in agreement. “Hame aisa suvidha nahi diya gayi hai. Samjhe?” Why? “Phir, woyi baaat? Simple. Malik ne nahi diya hai. Bas.” Why? Why did you not ask? Sharmaji quickly lost patience. "Ärre, Pandu, yeh babu ko zara door leh jaa kaar samjah!” Unless you are wet behind ears, everyone knows that drivers are not hired and given an appointment letter. You – as a driver – need a job. Motor malik on a referral – yes, without a referral, no driver will be hired even today – hands over the key of his truck – a few lakhs worth – to the applicant and tells him to go with a load to so and so destination. A fixed sum is given for route expenses – including the bribe to be paid to corrupt transport officials, traffic constable, toll gate charges et. A smart driver tries to bribe less, avoids toll rolls to keep his expenses as low as possible. Plus, whatever little diesel is saved at the end of the journey is drivers’. Well, that is his source of income. Rarely, drivers are given an appointment letter mentioning his monthly salary and other benefits. Drivers also don’t ask for appointment letters. Still, some companies show on their books of accounts that drivers are paid a salary of Rs.5,000 or 6.000. Just book entry. This money is never given to drivers but adjusted later under some pretext or other. Out of every trip, drivers definitely save and make money. Long haul drivers take home approx. Rs.25,000 every month. “Sharmaji, TV wale aaye hai!” sounded one of his lieutenants. Suddenly Sultanpur became the fresh news hub. A dozen OB vans were parked outside Sharma’s compound – What compound? Outside his field. His brick house was in the midst of coconut trees and cowsheds on a stretch of kucha road – seven kilometers from State highway linking Jaunpur in Uttar Pradesh. Very little has changed in this state ever since Independence. Almost 60 years, notwithstanding the fact that barring three Prime Ministers who ruled the country, every other PM was elected from this most populous state. Still development is a word that can be found only in the dictionary, not on the ground. The sudden appearance of TV crews in the midst of fields and narrow village lanes though created a lot of buzz initially, villagers became sick of this invasion. Even cycles were not able to pass through, posing a big challenge to the villagers living in the vicinity of Sharma’s home. Sharmaji’s call to millions of drivers to “stop vehicles till they respect us” campaign found an overwhelming response. Drivers began leaving their vehicles at factory gates, distribution centers, branch offices and everywhere. Except on highways. What triggered this revolt is interesting. Actually, it was not a single incident but at least two at different locations – around the same time; by sheer coincidence. In both cases, it was the demand for ‘self-respect’, in a manner of speaking. Disrespectful to the subordinates is nothing India specific. It is universal. The only thing is that Indians rejoice or get vicarious pleasure in insulting their juniors and also those who have no union protection to safeguard their rights. Truck drivers have no union to boast of or lean on in distress times. They have to fend for themselves. It is a do or die battle for them daily. Unless there is a collective action and normal life is disrupted, the media does not take notice of happenings that impact drivers’ life. A slap on driver Mannu Pandeyji by a transport official near Surat a week ago for his refusal to give the bribe demanded to set the ball rolling. Pandeyji felt the demand for Rs.2,000 for entry was too much when all his papers – of vehicle, cargo and driver – were legally perfect. However, his readiness to part with Rs.500 did not go down well with the RTO saying he is not a beggar to accept Rs.500! “Do what you want” reprieve by Pandeyji led to the RTO assaulting him in public. A bleeding Pandeyji fell on the ground and his head hit a stone which again led to further bruise and bleeding. Drivers around him felt that this was too much and punched the RTO. The battle turned ugly with both sides toughening their respective stance. RTO and his battalion used lathi while drivers pelted stone. Pandeyji is no kid on the block but a much-respected driver. The word spread about him being manhandled by RTO in Surat like wildfire and Sharma of Sultanpur – a close friend and confidant of Pandeyji – gave a call to fellow drivers to teach the corrupt RTO regime the right lesson. Actually, none gave any importance to this standoff between the RTOs and drivers until trucks simply vanished from highways. The bubble burst at last.
The war of words between drivers and RTOs is happening since state governments plucked highway policing from the police department and vested with the transport department. With a stiff target set for them on a monthly basis, instead of monitoring and ushering in a compliance regime by errant drivers, the transport officials rolled out a regime of corruption unheard of. Fleet owners smartly vested drivers with the responsibility to ‘manage’ the corrupt officials. An ability to handle corrupt officials was rated as a big plus for drivers while fleet owners hired drivers. Pandeyji was not the first driver to dispute RTO’s claims. Once upon a time, a lady RTO killed a driver in front of his son who wanted to be a driver and got suspended at the maximum. Driver’s son got a few lakhs but bid goodbye to drivery. Associations literally did nothing. It was a recurring drama for decades which incidentally is one of the reasons, turbaned-sardarjis who was the mascot of long haul truck driving quickly withdrew from the scene, leaving the field open for uneducated lot mainly from Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Bihar. Somehow, the Pandeyji incident unexpectedly lit fire to the hurt egos of drivers and Sharma jumped into the fray in support of his long time friend. Simultaneously, another incident at Zikrapur near Chandigarh, Indian Bevers Limited a multinational company manufacturing toilet soaps to a toothbrush to hair cream, a day earlier became a breaking news story in local television channels. Drivers at the warehouse of this company were denied access to the toilet and in the absence of any driver restroom facilities outside the warehouse, it created a piquant situation.

Such denial of toilet facilities is nothing new and it has been in practice from immemorial – be it an MNC or Indian company – but on this particular day when one of the drivers had stomach upset and needed multiple access, by the security and company officer, drivers hit upon a novel idea of protest. They gathered – almost 50 of them and decided to squat for open defecation in front of the warehouse. With their pants down and bottles filled with water for ablution, they literally began their bowel movement exercise in public. Word spread like wildfire and more drivers in the huge warehousing complex jumped into action. It was a sight to see. Rows and rows of drivers “defecating’ in public are something no one anticipated. In a fit of anger, the MNC warehouse manager ordered his security guards to charge them away resulting in a battle of bottles versus lathis. It turned ugly and violent too. Police were summoned and they added their might with more violence and this brought in news-hungry media. The agitating drivers called up their friends in other locations of the same company and in the next hour, 26 factories situated at various states, witnessed a chaotic scene. Everywhere, the same format was followed by ‘public defecation’ in front of the factory gates. The whole issue exploded. The next 24 hours saw several thousand drivers outside various factories and warehouses resorting to the same format of open defecation in protest against ‘No Toilet Access’. Imagine the plight of the company and the rulers of various state governments talking big about “Swatch Bharat Abhiyan’ (Clean India Campaign) spearheaded by none other than the Prime Minister himself and this “bare bottom’ approach. Sharma heard the story and decided it is time to dive deep to ‘teach a lesson’ to the capitalists and others as well. The sudden outpour of feelings of not getting due respect from everyone came in handy for him to hit quickly. That is when he gave a call to “stop vehicles till they respect us”. In the age of mobile phones, every single driver heard about the insult. Net result: unanticipated and spontaneous work stoppage right across the nation. No notice to go on strike. Where is the union or association to handle such niceties? Vanishing vehicles meant a virtual halt to economic activities. Manufacturing plants, having imbibed just in time or no inventory policy and outsourcing as the route to keep their costs down, simply have no reserves to keep the assembly lines running. That is on the production side. Equally hit were outbound transportation of pushing finished items to the market shelves. Even they needed transportation to move out of factory gates. With millions of drivers walking away from the steering wheels, there was total chaos when the industry realized what had hit them. Simultaneously, the common man realized his daily essentials of bread, butter, fruits, vegetables, etc. soaring through the roof due to short supply and the hoarding phenomenon. Krishnakant Bajaj, President of All India Manufacturers Federation, the country’s largest industry lobby group, led a team to Finance Minister Mustafa Gandhi seeking quick government intervention to restore normalcy nationwide. Some states did try to impose the Essential Services Maintenance Act to break the back of agitating drivers after they had failed to buy peace. A few states tried to arrest local driver leaders who assumed charge to lead the work stoppage but better sense prevailed at the eleventh hour to avoid any further provocation. Otherwise, Sharma would have been behind bars by now. Gandhi could have done very little considering this is a state subject and he is one of the votaries of robust federalism with each state enjoying enormous powers vis-à-vis center. Moreover, not all 54 states in India were not ruled by the same political party at the center. That’s why Gandhi gave an assurance to look into the matter. But the strike would continue for longer than anyone anticipated. Ruby had to contend with Liza’s tantrums. Every stakeholder tried their best. An offer was made to build toilets outside every factory, warehouse that receives a minimum of 25 trucks daily. Sharma refused to budge. Build first and then talk was his firm stance. “Sharmaji, what is your next move?” asked a Wall Street Journal reporter in English who flew into Allahabad – 200 km away from Sultanpur – and drove down. Given the billions of dollar investment many global giants had sunk in the Hindi belt – most underdeveloped part of India – under the much talked about Make In India initiative, Sultanpur and its native Sharma became the nerve center for the global business daily. A smart Sharma retorted: “Go and ask those companies how soon they will build toilets… and ask RTOs how soon they will behave like human beings – particularly towards us - drivers! …. When you have their answers, return! Then I will tell you what’s my next move Appaji Rao, standing next to Sharma and managing the new Drivers’ Centre set up quickly to ensure better coordination between Sultanpur and all India a week ago, marveled at Sharma’s guts.
(to continue)

ROUND TABLE-2: Mittoo stumped on TAT

Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Govt of India

Ramesh Kumar from Greater Noida


Dad, What you make of Krishnamurthy Subramanian?

You mean the Chief Economic Adviser, huh?

Yep.

What's your interest in him, Mittoo?

Glancing through the Economic Survey 2019-2020 prepared by him...

Hmmm.. So what's your question?

Dad, I heard you talking about TAT ... you know Turn Around Time? ...

Stop acting smart...

No, dad...

Come to the point

I was reading up the Ease of Doing Business part and wherein I saw the performance in logistics. Both imports into and exports out of India.

Okay. what did you make of it?

Dad, the Economic Survey captured a few live examples. Exporting apparels from a Delhi factory to Maine, US via JNPT. Five days from the factory to JNPT. Next 14 days spent unloading (1/2), customs clearance (2), stuffing container (2), queue for entry into the ship (2), handover to shipping line (1) and then the ship departure. All put together 19 days.

Then, Mittoo...

On highways, the consignment spends another 19 days. That's on Day 38, it reaches the American port. The next three days spent at Houston clearing customs assuming all paperwork is in place and no hera pheri on inspection, loading, and departure for Maine. On Day 41 from the date of leaving the Delhi factory, it is on the buyers' premises.

Mittoo, who did this case study?

Quality Council of India between October and December 2019. The report says, "However, much of the delay is due to the misalignment of processes that do not allow for “just in time” protocols. The uncertainty of time needed to clear each step means that exporters have to pad up the time spent waiting. This adds to the clogging of port space. ... There is obvious scope for improvement".

Okay...

Dad, another case study of exporting carpets from Mirzapur/Uttar Pradesh to New Jersey via an ICD in Piyala, Haryana is equally tedious and time-consuming. The story is the same as in the previous case study.  However...

However, what, Mittoo?

Can I cite a reverse case for a better understanding?

Sure, sure...

A Milan/Italy carpet exporter sends stuff to Beawar/Rajasthan. 10 hours from the Italian factory to Naples covering 773 km. Yes, 10 hours in Italy.  Two hours for customs clearance, one hour to load the ship. Less than a day from the factory to ship! How? Alignment of all processes. Or Just in Time. Next 23 days on highways to Mundhra on the Gujarat coast. Here comes the interesting part...

Hmmm.

The ship reached on Day 24. Next six days at Mudhra Port for waiting outside port (2), customs clearance (2), 7 hours to exit port. On Day 31, it reaches the Beawar importer. Eight days in India on border compliance protocol and travel time.

What's new, Mittoo?

Dad, the QCI study found that the processes for imports are better than the process for exports.

I am sure, the Survey should have talked about how things are on the mend...

Ugh. How do you know that, Dad?

Experience, beta... experience...

The Survey says the ship TAT was declining continuously. From 4.67 days in 2010-11 to 2.48 days in 2018-19. Hang on... it also says...

What's so exciting... You say "hang on"?

The Survey says, Dad, no full case study of Chennai port was not done where the processes are smoother than those of the other ports.

Okay...

Dad, something interesting you may like to hear..

Go ahead, Mittoo...

An electronics export load from Bengaluru via air is of world standard. 10 hours in India from the factory to airport, five hours flight to Hongkong and seven hours from HK airport to customer warehouse. ... Yahoo...

Stop, Mittoo... 

Sorry, Dad. Got carried away... Because our airports are at par or even better than their counterparts.

What about the cost, Mittoo?

(Radio silence)

Mittoo... Mittoo ... Are you there? 

(Radio silence)

Anticipated this. Defending the indefensible! Ease of Doing Business in India is a conundrum. 

Dad, why are you so pessimistic? Won't change desirable? Don't you want it to happen? Yes, you do.

Enough, Mittoo. I'm not pessimistic. If at all some better things have to happen, they have to happen on its own. 

You mean to say, the proposed National Logistics Policy is hogwash?

I never said it. You're putting words into my mouth. All I am saying is "wait and watch".

Okay. Let me.

Mood off ho gaya? Mittoo... Mittoo!


Want to read the ROUND TABLE-1? 
Why Mittoo hates Nitin Gadkari ...
Click here

ROUNDTABLE-1: Why Mittoo hates Nitin Gadkari

Nitin Gadkari, Minister for Road Transport & Highways, Govt of India at AutoExpo2020

Ramesh Kumar from Greater Noida

"Gadkari Murdabad!" screamed Mittoo.

"What happened? Why are you raising slogans against Nitin Gadkariji? What has he done warranting you to cry hoarse?" demanded Rambo.

Your hearing impaired, Rambo!

Wow! Hearing-impaired? You're calling me deaf subtly? I am okay with that. Beware, papa won't approve of your naarabaaji!

Did you notice papa's mood since yesterday?

Why? What happened? He's okay. Been with him always. Next to him always.

Yesterday evening he was watching Gadkari's address at the AutoExpo and exclaimed: "another data-driven extempore talk."

Of course, I too watched. Papa also commented: "Highway, highway but nothing about highway amenities. By 2023, 12-hour drive from Mumbai to Delhi on the access-controlled expressway."

So ...

Papa was pissed with Gadkari.

About what?

Last night, he received few video clips from Tamilnadu drivers on WhatsApp. He was fretting and fuming after watching it.

What's new. Your papa is hyper!

Your papa! How dare you...? Since when you disowned him, Mr. Ungrateful!

Cool, cool baby! Am not. I do appreciate papa's anguish.

Hmmm.

Past midnight, when we went out for bioleak, I heard him talking to someone - driver, it ought to be.

About what?

About the video clip from Tamilnadu.

What was in it that upset papa?

From the talk, it appears, at the Krishnagiri toll plaza, a truck driver was beaten up by the toll plaza boys because this driver entered the Fastag lane by mistake.

Then?

The upset driver blocked the passage and got hundreds of truck drivers to join him demanding an apology from the rude toll plaza official.

Then?

The police came, a compromise was reached.

What compromise?

The rude toll plaza official fell at the driver's feet seeking an apology for his behavior. Drivers dropped their plans to give a written complaint.

Okay. Then?

All because of this Fastag tamasha

What's wrong with Fastag? It is desirable. This will reduce waiting time at toll plazas. Smoothen the flow of traffic.

Bullshit, Rambo!

Mind your language, Mittoo!

Fastag is a flop. Gadkari himself admitted.

No. He did not say it was a flop. It is taking time to get streamlined. Mittoo beta, yeh hai India! Everything takes time.  Tell me, why you shouted, "Gadkari, Murdabad!"?

Forget about the Krishnagiri toll plaza incident yesterday. Did you see papa using unprintable expletives this morning while reading his Hindustan Times?

I thought he was heartily laughing at the Prime Minister Narendra Modi calling Rahul Gandhi "tube light" yesterday in Parliament.

Leave that aside. Who cares for that duffer? He was reading aloud the news item to Mama.

What was it about?

What else, but about Fastag?

Fastag?

Papa read, "Toll officials beat farmer to death for using Fastag lane"

Haan?

Papa, papa.. please read again to this Tubelight!

Mittoo, am no Rahul! Stop bullying!

Relax, kiddo... Let me read this for both of you"

Two officials were among three people booked on Thursday (February 6, 2020) for allegedly beating a farmer to death on Monday after he tried to drive off his sugarcane-laden tractor-trolley through an electronic toll collection lane to avoid traffic congestion in the cash lane at Meerut's Western Toll Plaza, police said.

Thanks, Papa! Got it, Rambo?

Oh my God! Still, that does not explain your "Gadkari Murdabad!" sloganeering...

You're truly a Tubelight. Toll plazas come under which ministry?

Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.

Who's the minister in charge?

Oh... got it... Nitin Gadkari. So you mean to say that he is responsible for this Krishnagiri toll plaza rowdyism and the Meerut ghastly murder?

Of course, you like it or not. National Highways Authority of India or NHAI is part of Gadkari's fiefdom. Therefore, he is responsible for such happenings.

What TN drivers should do?

Heard Papa advising his driver friends in Tamilnadu to write to the National Highways Authority of India giving full details of the Krishnagiri incident and ask them to discipline toll plaza officials not only in Krishnagiri but across India. Also set in motion, some kind of audit and blacklist such bad behaving toll plazas. By the way, a few weeks ago, a lady at the Krishnagiri toll plaza did something similar to another truck driver and got away lightly.

Okay. I understand why you were upset with Gadkari. No doubt, he is a big talker. But doer also. He is doing a good amount of work. Perhaps you were not aware that after watching Gadkari Live telecast on his Twitter handle, papa posted some good comments about him.

You mean to say, papa is okay with the minister?

Haha... Nothing of that sort. The Minister has got his plate full. So many things to handle. Unlike papa who is focused on driver welfare. 

Understandable... Tell me, this Krishnagiri is the same place where papa was born some 60 odd years ago?

Spot on.

Rambo, tell me what's the future of Fastag?

Mittoo, Fastag will be a success. Many toll plaza owners were looting the state exchequer by siphoning off toll collection clandestinely. This electronic toll collection will definitely put an end to these nefarious activities. So that the money will directly come into government coffers. Then, that money can be used for some concrete purpose.

Rambo, you mean the building of "concrete" roads?

Haha.. You're a Tubelight now... The concrete here means solid and useful.

Chalo. It is time for me to watch House of Cards Season 4 on Netflix with papa!

What about me?

You can rehearse something better... say, like, "Gadkari, Zindabad!"

Rambooooooo!

Note: Rambo, six-year-old Lhaso Apso, converses with Mittoo, six-year-old parrot.  They will return soon.

Upkar Singh & Ankit Patni aren't on the same page!

Upkar Singh with his son Baninder Sigh (on his right)

Ramesh Kumar from Greater Noida

All India Confederation of Goods Vehicle Owners' Association Vice President Upkar Singh is not convinced that the economy is on a recovery trail. He has his own reasons. The Budget day  (February 1, 2020) stock market index Sensex's 1000 point drop further dampened his mood.

Just not the lean Sardar fleet owning transporter operating out of his tiny office in the unhygienic Sanjay Gandhi Transport Nagar. Critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi also did a Salsa, expectedly so. Modi-bhakts or pro-government group were in a bit of low key for a while before digging up the past Budget day Sensex performance during the Congress regime to score points that the fall during Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram heydays were much worse than the way the Sensex and Nifty 50 fell soon after the first full-time female finance minister of Independent India Nirmala Seerharaman presented her second consecutive budget.

48 hours later when the markets opened up, better sense prevailed and the markets bounced back. After all, there were no negatives in Nirmala's prescription for the new fiscal (2020-21). The Saturday Fever has evaporated by Monday and Tuesday. Not that the entire pessimism vanished. That's unlikely, given the huge political divide. The brutal majority of ruling NDA on the one side and the dwarfed UPA on the other at the Hustings 2019. This will last till the next election in 2024.

On Tuesday, the manufacturing index gave some hope (independent of government statisticians and survey proclamations) that there are green shoots on the horizon. Global oil price at US$54 a barrel also did not enthuse the Sardar. India's import bill of 80% of its oil demand will come down drastically is something Upkar discounts for his own reasons.

He has sold off a chunk of his fleet. Just not that. He has greenlighted his son's diversification plans. The elder son has convinced his dad to invest in a top-notch gym in West Delhi a year ago and rocking in a manner of speaking. The second son, pulled out of Infosys to join papa's transport business several summers ago, sought dad's blessings and paisa to go on his own. He is busy setting up the roasted coffee business. He traveled extensively to study the coffee market and sensed a good business opportunity in India for a good coffee.

When he joined Upkar a few years ago, he was gung-ho and promised that he would support his dad's transport business. Upkar's Aman Cargo is focused on Delhi-Bengaluru long haul ferrying parcel mostly for decades. That has not changed. But the volume of business has shrunk. His heart still beats for fleet owning class. Baninder Singh saw a huge upside in the transport sector when he got out of Infosys to support his dad initially and quietly take over at a later stage. That optimism has gone for a six, obviously. The exploration of the roasted coffee business is a sign of the times. 

Upkar is not alone. At Faridabad Transport Association Secretary Subash Kaushik is equally fretting and fuming. "Future? Can't say what's in store. Complicated. As you drove through our Nagar, you saw the idling trucks. Did you count?" he asks rhetorically. He is sullen.

I am visiting him after eight years. The Association office has gone for a major uplift. Spick and span. Much better than some of the offices of national bodies in the capital. So, the going was good before the bad time hit. When this gloom will lift? He refuses to guess. Just not him. Nobody is ready to hazard a guess.

At the Container Freight Stations (CFS) between Dadri/Uttar Pradesh and Mundhra/Gujarat, the stacks do not cross two layers: one upon one. At the peak time, they had stacked four or five years. Even at the Inland Container Depots (ICDs), the buzz is missing.

Ramrattan Sanghi, another NCR fleet owning transporter with focus on the long haul, has opted to garage a sizeable chunk of his fleet until the economic scenario improves. "It does not make sense to keep the full fleet on the road when they don't even earn the operating cost." Sensible decision, sure.

Arpit Patni, an enlightened and educated second-generation fleet owning transporter in Jaipur, attributes the slump to several factors. All known of course. No need to repeat. Yet, he is not pessimistic like Upkar or Kaushik. "Ups and downs are part of the business cycle. Even this bad time will pass," he avers.

In a nutshell, the economy is like sitting on an eggshell. Manufacturing activities have to gain momentum. Small doses won't do. The huge outlay on agriculture and infrastructure laid out in the Budget will take its own time before the actual cashflow out of government exchequer. The quicker, the better. Until this transpires, the mood of Upkar, Subash and Ramrattan are unlikely to lift up. But it ought to. Actually, the ball is in the government's court still. The Budget is nothing but an intent to spend. Get going, Ms. Seetharaman! Release funds as quickly as possible. The Nation is eagerly awaiting the tap to turn and expect a copious flow. Don't delay.

Creative Destruction Underway

Ramesh Kumar from Greater Noida

Modal shift ought to be a nightmare for road transporters. What they built assiduously over decades thanks to the lethargy of Indian Railways, now being taken away. If not already, the motion is set in place. By the government wholeheartedly. It was the same government or bureaucracy under different political dispensations that almost dismantled the Railway hegemony enabling the rise of road transport. No longer. Times are changing.

The draft National Logistics Policy (NLP) released almost a year ago, has clearly indicated what it desires. Take a look.

Currently, the modal ratio is road 60%, rail 31% and water 9% approximately. Under the draft NLP likely to be announced as a pucca policy very soon, again specifically stated by the Finance Minister Nirmala Seetharaman in her Budget Speech 2020, will desire to optimize with a modal mix of road 25-30%, rail 50-55%, and water 20-25%.

All the policy initiatives over NDA-1 and NDA-2 are in this direction. The Dedicated Freight Corridor, nearing completion, will certainly be a big boost to rail. Waterways, sure, will take time to fructify. But certainly an achievable and desirable goal to reduce carbon emission as well as to decongest highways. The Bharatmala with dedicated freight corridors is the only silver lining for road transporters from a larger perspective.

The rise of startups such as Rivigo, Blackbuck in the road transport segment certainly is a big thorn for the conventional transporters. But the government is looking beyond the unorganized group of old school transporters. Various policy announcements such as the hefty axle load rise are shrinking the marketspace. That is the supply excess is ballooning with earlier overloading violators are blessed with a bonanza. Legal at that. The established fleet owning transporters and or the big boys who have hundreds if not thousands of associates plying on highways with the big boy's brands are safe with their long term transport contracts and are less concerned about the noise at the bottom of the pyramid.

What's the future of road transport? Forget long hauls. Rail will eat into that. No two opinions. Yet, rail has its own disadvantage: needs support at the first and last-mile delivery. Rail can't come to one's doorstep. So short-haul will remain the domain of road transport. Niche segments such as chemicals, fuel, LPG, etc again can remain in road transport fold.  Bulk items such as steel, cement, fertilizer, and coal belong to rail.

Ecom is an area where road transport can have a say. However, e-com players are majorly dumping higher payload vehicles and opting for smaller payload ones following the axle load revision due to approx. 15% freight advantage.

A growing economy like India that wants to cater to the needs of aspirational India in the remotest corners via e-com route, the road has a marginal advantage (how long, one does not know) over the rail.

Containerisation is another bright spot. Dry ports across India is a reality. Now with the fresh thrust on export hubs at the district level - if not immediately, but in the 5-6 year horizon - announced in the Budget 2020 is something road transport can explore. From dry ports/CFS to the nearest ICD. With Concor going private sooner which enjoys a huge container movement market, here again, the first/last mile connectivity is something to mull over.

Not to be forgotten is the project cargo. That has to be on-road only. A niche premium market. The rail cannot handle. Then comes the question of how many projects and where. There again it is a bit overcrowded.

Many matured traditional transporters have foreseen this changing trend long ago and there goes the tale of many of them getting into or diversifying into allied services such as warehousing and kitting etc inside.

Pure vanilla transporters (fleet owning, am referring to) have to look into their crystal glass if they have not yet. The elimination of the weakest from the millions of truck owners is inevitable. Creative destruction.