 |
| Upkar Singh with his son Baninder Sigh (on his right) |
Ramesh Kumar from Greater Noida
All India Confederation of Goods Vehicle Owners' Association Vice President Upkar Singh is not convinced that the economy is on a recovery trail. He has his own reasons. The Budget day (February 1, 2020) stock market index Sensex's 1000 point drop further dampened his mood.
Just not the lean Sardar fleet owning transporter operating out of his tiny office in the unhygienic Sanjay Gandhi Transport Nagar. Critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi also did a Salsa, expectedly so. Modi-bhakts or pro-government group were in a bit of low key for a while before digging up the past Budget day Sensex performance during the Congress regime to score points that the fall during Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram heydays were much worse than the way the Sensex and Nifty 50 fell soon after the first full-time female finance minister of Independent India Nirmala Seerharaman presented her second consecutive budget.
48 hours later when the markets opened up, better sense prevailed and the markets bounced back. After all, there were no negatives in Nirmala's prescription for the new fiscal (2020-21). The Saturday Fever has evaporated by Monday and Tuesday. Not that the entire pessimism vanished. That's unlikely, given the huge political divide. The brutal majority of ruling NDA on the one side and the dwarfed UPA on the other at the Hustings 2019. This will last till the next election in 2024.
On Tuesday, the manufacturing index gave some hope (independent of government statisticians and survey proclamations) that there are green shoots on the horizon. Global oil price at US$54 a barrel also did not enthuse the Sardar. India's import bill of 80% of its oil demand will come down drastically is something Upkar discounts for his own reasons.
He has sold off a chunk of his fleet. Just not that. He has greenlighted his son's diversification plans. The elder son has convinced his dad to invest in a top-notch gym in West Delhi a year ago and rocking in a manner of speaking. The second son, pulled out of Infosys to join papa's transport business several summers ago, sought dad's blessings and paisa to go on his own. He is busy setting up the roasted coffee business. He traveled extensively to study the coffee market and sensed a good business opportunity in India for a good coffee.
When he joined Upkar a few years ago, he was gung-ho and promised that he would support his dad's transport business. Upkar's Aman Cargo is focused on Delhi-Bengaluru long haul ferrying parcel mostly for decades. That has not changed. But the volume of business has shrunk. His heart still beats for fleet owning class. Baninder Singh saw a huge upside in the transport sector when he got out of Infosys to support his dad initially and quietly take over at a later stage. That optimism has gone for a six, obviously. The exploration of the roasted coffee business is a sign of the times.
Upkar is not alone. At Faridabad Transport Association Secretary Subash Kaushik is equally fretting and fuming. "Future? Can't say what's in store. Complicated. As you drove through our Nagar, you saw the idling trucks. Did you count?" he asks rhetorically. He is sullen.
I am visiting him after eight years. The Association office has gone for a major uplift. Spick and span. Much better than some of the offices of national bodies in the capital. So, the going was good before the bad time hit. When this gloom will lift? He refuses to guess. Just not him. Nobody is ready to hazard a guess.
At the Container Freight Stations (CFS) between Dadri/Uttar Pradesh and Mundhra/Gujarat, the stacks do not cross two layers: one upon one. At the peak time, they had stacked four or five years. Even at the Inland Container Depots (ICDs), the buzz is missing.
Ramrattan Sanghi, another NCR fleet owning transporter with focus on the long haul, has opted to garage a sizeable chunk of his fleet until the economic scenario improves. "It does not make sense to keep the full fleet on the road when they don't even earn the operating cost." Sensible decision, sure.
Arpit Patni, an enlightened and educated second-generation fleet owning transporter in Jaipur, attributes the slump to several factors. All known of course. No need to repeat. Yet, he is not pessimistic like Upkar or Kaushik. "Ups and downs are part of the business cycle. Even this bad time will pass," he avers.
In a nutshell, the economy is like sitting on an eggshell. Manufacturing activities have to gain momentum. Small doses won't do. The huge outlay on agriculture and infrastructure laid out in the Budget will take its own time before the actual cashflow out of government exchequer. The quicker, the better. Until this transpires, the mood of Upkar, Subash and Ramrattan are unlikely to lift up. But it ought to. Actually, the ball is in the government's court still. The Budget is nothing but an intent to spend. Get going, Ms. Seetharaman! Release funds as quickly as possible. The Nation is eagerly awaiting the tap to turn and expect a copious flow. Don't delay.
No comments:
Post a Comment