Ramesh Kumar From Greater Noida
"When did you last fill up the tank?" asked my #BetterHalf as I motored into the BP Ecotech 12 retail fuel outlet bang opposite my home, a few hours before Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das released his monthly bulletin on May 17, 2021.
A fortnight ago, I responded based on my PatyTM statement. On May 3, it was for Rs.1100. The amount remained the same this time (17 May) also, though I was unsure of volume because of price adjustment at regular intervals.
My driving is restricted to just a kilometre for the purpose of escorting Rambo out for his morning ablutions around 0900 hours. It is a daily routine. Unchanged for several months ever since the residents of my housing complex began "targeting" pet owners on alleged despoiling charges. For information, there are two dozen pets in this 1500 plus flat complex.
Notwithstanding the fact that all pets are led outside the gates for you know what daily. More than once by many.
Rambo and BH we go out where he gets fresh air and does his essential chore and BH completes her daily quota of 10000 steps - particularly the pending portion.
Another reason for my driving is to take Rambo to his vet, again 500 metres both ways. Once in 10 days. Not to be missed is the desire to keep the Renault engine in working condition.
Maximum 1.5 km a day multiplied by 14 days. That's around 21 km per fortnight. Or approximately Rs.50 per day on fuel alone.
As is wont developed over the years, I checked the RBI website to the Monthly report. Nothing better than hearing from the horse's mouth, instead of the cut-and-paste "By a Correspondent" item - be it on page one or business pages.
Governor sounded optimistic that the April 2021 performance was better compared to the previous year same time. Bound to be because we are "lockdowned" and there was no economic activity. There were challenges even for the movement of essentials by trucks.
"Oh My God, we are spending Rs.50/daily for Rambo's bowel movement," quipped BH. I guffawed. Actually, none of this minded that expense. That gave an excuse to step out of the self-imposed isolation from our living quarters for less than an hour. Fresh air among tree lined and 100% empty service lane.
"I saw two birds this morning in the park. Rare. Never seen them before", added she. Look, here's an indirect benefit, courtesy Rambo's outing! Upset she was nevertheless because before she could flip her handset into camera mode, the nameless avian flew away. There is always the next time!
I usually carry two phone. One in camera/video mode always and another one for listening purpose. Who knows when the camera/video may be needed!
...
"Do you think Rs.100/litre for petrol is a reality?" she asked. It is already in some parts of India. Not yet in NCR.
That triggered me to scan for the fuel commentary in the RBI Monthly Bulletin.
It is no secret that India is self sufficient in oil and its import dependency is huge. "The recent rise in crude prices following the OPEC+ decision to cut production, has lent impetus to India's oil import basket diversification. India has successfully diverted away from OPEC countries towards non-OPEC producers of crude in recent years," said the Bulletin.
Import Basket diversification! Wow... Does it mean the worry over Rs.100/litre is hyped up? Keeping fingers crossed.
Anyhow, began looking at the chart. Between 2017-18 and 2021-21 (upto Feb), the import of crude oil from non OPEC has risen from 25.6% to 36.7%. Good. Put it differently, India is importing 63 per cent from OPEC today as against 74.4 in 2017-18.
Who are contributing to India's desire to reduce dependence on Saudi? Take a look at this graph.
Uncle Joe Biden of the United States. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Emir of Qatar. Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico.
Significantly, there is some misalignment between India and Saudi on the crude oil front. With Saudi refused the world's third largest importer's demand not to cut oil production, India has gone in for buying Norwegian product: 4 million barrels is on its way to Indian refiners. IOC is expecting 2 million barrels from North Sea in May and June. Brazilian Tupi oil of one million barrel sold by Shell is on its way to Indian shores, according to a latest Observer Research Foundation bulletin.
Climate activism is a noteworthy trend to chase. Major global oil explorers are downsizing their oil explorations for the conventional non-renewal energy onshore and onshore. An equally strong lobby is at work advocating that pension funds that have sunken huge dollops of money into stocks should be concerned more about Milton Friedman's shareholder interest primacy.
Rambo is unconcerned about these developments, as of now. It cares two hoots for for Saudi or Biden's return to the Paris Accord membership, and leading upfront the movement to promote electric transition to reduce greenhouse gas emission levels.
BH or self is not Rambo. Therefore we are concerned. The transition to electric mode which will reduce the crude import may be decades away as far as India concerned. Again, the chances of GST Council watering down the two-thirds tax burden in oil pricing imposed and collected by central and state governments is doubtful as no state would like to lose out easy milch cow viz., tax on fuel.
So the Rs.100/litre petrol cannot be ruled out. If it transpires, I have a few options: one less fuel consumption. Because the society guys are unlikely to relent. Saudi may. Not my society guys.
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