Road Transport, the bright future-1

Ramesh Kumar*

Over the past few days, I have been poring over the “Report of Working Group on Road Transport for the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-17)” released recently. It is an interesting document and felt I will not be able to do justice to this precious tome in one single long piece. Moreover, to retain the attention span of potential readers, the offerings have to be in small doses. Like it is said that even the tastiest pizza has to be cut into small pieces to enjoy. Small indeed is beautiful and meaningful. Here goes my maiden dispatch.

One thing that stuck me is the scope for technological induction in the road transport segment. It certainly will be a panacea for many ills plaguing this sector crying for reforms. This recommendation from the Sub-Group on ‘Passenger & Freight Traffic Assessment and Adequacy of Fleet & Data Collection and Use of IT in Transport Sector’ as part of this Report has a reason to show its eagerness for IT. Road transport’s share of both passenger & freight traffic vis-à-vis other modes of transport has notched up 4.7% of India’s GDP as against Railways’ paltry 1%.

That is truly amazing given the fact that unlike railways, air and inland waterways which are ‘seamless’ compared to the ‘rigorous en route checks/barriers’ Road Transport faces daily.

Why road transport is likely to dominate in the years to come? Good question. Let me quote from the abovementioned Report:

“Both freight and passenger movement by road is expected to rapidly expand in the coming years. In particular, freight movement by road transport is expected to show robust growth over the medium term due to a number of factors.
(a)   Substantial investment in improvement in national highway network which will facilitate speedy, reliable and door to door services
(b)   Freight movement by road transport offers a compolte logistic solution that minimizes the cost of transport, logistics and inventories;
(c)    Rising volumes of exports and imports”

Given the 12^th Plan’s emphasis on increased exports to achieve desired GDP goals, the demand for inland transport to move “cargo from production centres to gateway ports (air and sea)” is bound to shoot up.

What’s the freight volume projection during the next five years, as envisaged by this Report?

Projected Road Freight Traffic (in billion tonnes KM- BTKM)

Years	Scenario 1 (@ 8.7% growth)	Scenario 2 (@ 8% growth)	Scenario 3 (@ 8.5% growth)		Scenario 4 (@ 9% growth)	Scenario 5 (@ 9.5% growth)
2012-13	1,315	1,337	1,351	1,366		1,381
2013-14	1,429	1.465	1,489	1,513		1,538
2014-15	1,553	1,605	1,641	1,677		1,714
2015-16	1,688	1,760	1,808	1,858		1,909
2016-17	1,835	1,928	1,993	2,059		2,126

Note: elasticity of 1.2 maintained from Scenario 2 to Scenario 4)

Source: Planning Commission Report, 2012

Yes, these are just numbers, one may say. I have my own reservations on looking purely at numbers alone. Still, I believe these projections certainly sound interesting and believable because having travelled over 17,000 KM on Indian highways in trucks over the past two years (this odyssey will continue), the freight movement is mind-boggling. Step out of your air-conditioned cubicles and make at least a 250 km intercity travel in your own air-conditioned passenger cars – not trucks! – and see for yourself. The moment you hit the highways, the movement of HCVs will be visible: crawling at 40 kmph at least, occupying one lane seamlessly.

Yes, India is growing. Salute the satellite television that has revolutionized the mindset of India and Bharat (urban and rural) with aspiration levels touching skyhigh, warranting all kinds of consumer goods – branded and otherwise – to reach out the remotest outlet. If so, they have to be produced in the first place. So raw materials have to be sourced from various locations and brought to the manufacturing sight. What do you need to move them? Vehicles: LCV or HCV. Then, once products are ready, they need to be moved to consumption points – your neighbourhood provision store or whatever. What do you need for this? Vehicles: LCV and HCV again. HCV for long hauls and LCVs for last minute connectivity.

Eighty plus Chittaranjan Dass, the walking encyclopaedia on road transport (who incidentally was a member of the Planning Commission’s Working Group that prepared this Report), and R C Acharya, ex-Member (Mechanical), Railway Board, used to say rail and road cannot do without each other. “They are complementary to each other. Rail for long haul and road for short hauls,” is how used to put it. Rail is a perfect for certain bulk items: iron ore, foodgrains, iron ore, coal, oil, cement etc. Road for the first/last mile connectivity and both long and short haul for everything else. That’s why, this Report harps on road transport’s BIG PLUS of offering “a complete logistic solution that minimizes the cost of transport logistics and inventories”.

Let us look at this Report’s recommendation on technology in road transport sector in the next installment.

(To be continued)

·         Author of 10,000 KM on Indian Highways, Publisher of Supply Chain India and Consulting Editor of SAARC Journal of Transport